BDO caution on record exports and imports stats
BDO caution on record exports and imports stats
Carol Lynch, Partner & Head of Customs and International Trade Services, featured in The Irish Times with her commentary on latest update from CSO. Read Carol's full commentary.
CSO ‘Goods Exports and Imports’ statistics for September 2024 in Ireland, while showing record exports, signal underlying concerns.
Carol Lynch, Partner, Customs and Trade, said that of particular concern is that the US now represents our largest export market outside of the EU, with 31% of total exports in September to the US – a growth of 64% on September 2023. September was also our record months for exports.
In September exports of goods were €22.2 bn, the highest monthly exports on record. They increased by 12% on the first 9 months of 2024 to almost €166bn compared with 2023. This is up by over €4bn on August 2024 (or 22.6%) showing a continued and strong upward trajectory. Exports (unadjusted) in September 2024 also increased by almost €6.4bn compared with September 2023.
“The fact that September was our record month for exports and also our record level of exports to the US illustrates a vulnerability for the Irish economy in the context of anticipated tariffs that would lead to a contraction around US multi-national presence here following the US election”.
US Exports
Exports to the US have increased by 28% in the first 9 months of this year compared to the first 9 months of 2023. The trade surplus in 24 is €35bn
The US now represents our second largest export market, representing 31% of exports in Sept (after the EU – representing 47% of exports in Sept) with goods exported to the US
This will be a significant concern with the potential for additional tariffs being imposed in the US on all imports.
Exports to GB
GB now represents 5% of total exports in September 24, a 4% increase on September 23; but overall in the first 9 months of the year compared to last year GB exports were down 13%.
September figures represent a welcome improvement in chemical and related exports to GB which had been struggling (now €260m in Sept – up from €214m in Sept 23, and €219m in Aug 24) – albeit exports are still down on the first 9 months of this year compared to last (from €5bn in 23 to €3bn in 24).
Pharma and Chemicals
Medical and Pharmaceutical products increased by 77% in September 24 vs September 23 accounting for 48% of all exports. Organic chemical exports also increased by 17%.
The Pharmaceutical and Chemicals Sector represents nearly half of all exports by value and around 80% of our exports to the US are in this sector. While we still export marginally more to the EU it is still almost half of all our Pharma and Chemical exports.
“A significant concern for us is that the Pharmaceutical and Chemicals sectors now represent nearly two-thirds of all exports and around 80% of our exports to the US are in this space. Concerns around this may have heightened by the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy junior as Health Secretary. The outcome here remains to be seen but with all of these factors, plus the likely Trump administration focus on tariffs and offshoring industries, we may have some adjustments ahead”, commented Ms Lynch.
The potential US trade fluctuations will be even more significant in the context of the reduction of exports to Great Britain over the first 9 months of this year.
CSO ‘Goods Exports and Imports’ statistics for September 2024 in Ireland, while showing record exports, signal underlying concerns.
Carol Lynch, Partner, Customs and Trade, said that of particular concern is that the US now represents our largest export market outside of the EU, with 31% of total exports in September to the US – a growth of 64% on September 2023. September was also our record months for exports.
In September exports of goods were €22.2 bn, the highest monthly exports on record. They increased by 12% on the first 9 months of 2024 to almost €166bn compared with 2023. This is up by over €4bn on August 2024 (or 22.6%) showing a continued and strong upward trajectory. Exports (unadjusted) in September 2024 also increased by almost €6.4bn compared with September 2023.
“The fact that September was our record month for exports and also our record level of exports to the US illustrates a vulnerability for the Irish economy in the context of anticipated tariffs that would lead to a contraction around US multi-national presence here following the US election”.
US Exports
Exports to the US have increased by 28% in the first 9 months of this year compared to the first 9 months of 2023. The trade surplus in 24 is €35bn
The US now represents our second largest export market, representing 31% of exports in Sept (after the EU – representing 47% of exports in Sept) with goods exported to the US
This will be a significant concern with the potential for additional tariffs being imposed in the US on all imports.
Exports to GB
GB now represents 5% of total exports in September 24, a 4% increase on September 23; but overall in the first 9 months of the year compared to last year GB exports were down 13%.
September figures represent a welcome improvement in chemical and related exports to GB which had been struggling (now €260m in Sept – up from €214m in Sept 23, and €219m in Aug 24) – albeit exports are still down on the first 9 months of this year compared to last (from €5bn in 23 to €3bn in 24).
Pharma and Chemicals
Medical and Pharmaceutical products increased by 77% in September 24 vs September 23 accounting for 48% of all exports. Organic chemical exports also increased by 17%.
The Pharmaceutical and Chemicals Sector represents nearly half of all exports by value and around 80% of our exports to the US are in this sector. While we still export marginally more to the EU it is still almost half of all our Pharma and Chemical exports.
“A significant concern for us is that the Pharmaceutical and Chemicals sectors now represent nearly two-thirds of all exports and around 80% of our exports to the US are in this space. Concerns around this may have heightened by the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy junior as Health Secretary. The outcome here remains to be seen but with all of these factors, plus the likely Trump administration focus on tariffs and offshoring industries, we may have some adjustments ahead”, commented Ms Lynch.
The potential US trade fluctuations will be even more significant in the context of the reduction of exports to Great Britain over the first 9 months of this year.